Models are on pretty agreement when storm system will impact the region. Appears that the storm will likely begin for southern New England during the evening rush hour to slightly after (5 to 8 PM). This region consists of New Jersey, NYC metro area up to around Poughkeepsie. Precipitation should get into New England from 9 to 12 AM. This zone consists from Poughkeepsie up to Albany area. Precipitation should spread up into the northern New England during the overnight hours on Wednesday into Thursday (more likely after midnight). This zone consists of areas from Albany northward. Appears likely that the precipitation will likely be all rain across southern New England, snow transitioning to mix across New England and all snow across New England. Low snow fall ratios will allow for a heavier snow to fall across the area. Models do show a considerable amount of snow for majority of northern New England and have been showing this for a couple of runs now. However, due to where the primary wind direction projected for the storm, the  models may be overdoing the QPF. The exception would be northern Maine where they will be more impacted by a coastal storm that develops. The mix line and where it sets up will be crucial with determining how much snow the region will get. The models indicate the rain/snow probably setting up across southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Albany, Bennington, Brattleboro, Concord, Portland will be around where the rain/mix/snow line will be. During the day on Thursday this line should move northward to around Sprinfield VT extending eastward.  Areas across northwest NY will likely remain frozen. Colder air will begin to filter back down into the region by late in the day on Thursday for all of New England and gradually filter down into southern New England Thursday night. East and southeasterly flow could limit precipitation amounts due to shadowing. This should cut down on precipitation totals. As the system pulls away there will be wrap around and moisture contributing to possible additional accumulations on the backside.

I will post snowfall accumulations later this afternoon.

Stay Tuned,

Forecaster: Joe Gullo