Take a look at some of the soundings for St. Johnsbury, Vermont (Northeast part of the state)…

Here is a model sounding for rain…

Now take a look at the 00z NAM soundings for the area…

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Lowest layers are around 0 degrees C, this indicates that by 7 AM Monday precipitation is likely snow mixing in at times with sleet and freezing rain.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

See how the blue line moved right? This is at 10 AM This indicates warming in the lower levels which causes precipitation to changeover from snow (possibly mixing) to ALL RAIN. See the sample graphic above? Classic case of a rain sounding!

(Click on the image to enlarge)

This is at 1 PM on Monday… The profile remains warm and remains all rain.

Waiting for 00z GFS to see what to do with the forecast, may have to trim some of the totals back to reflect some of the changes in the modeling. Stay tuned..

Forecaster: Joe Gullo