Talk about a crazy storm. I recieved a text message from my mom this morning saying that it was snowing in central New Jersey at 11 AM. I would have never guessed that that much cold air would reach it down that far south. This goes to show you how much cold air is getting wrapped into this system and it is only going to intensify further. Some locations over the Poconos have recieved over a foot of snow accumulations. This is a monster storm that is not only bringing in heavy precipitation (rain and snow) but also heavy winds. Wind speeds could gust from 35-45 MPH making travelling very dangerous around the region.
Below is the current radar imagery…
Even though the radar shows majority of the New Jersey and NYC metro area as rain there have been reports of snow falling, heavy at times across this region. I do expect this to continue over the next few hours. Thinking that some spots may pick up 4″+ out of this system. Make sure you allow yourself extra time to and from your destinations this evening.
The above graphic is Sea Level Pressure. You can see the northwest flow behind this low pressure system. This is what is allowing the upper-levels and down at the surface to cool. This same flow can be found up in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. As this low pulls away we’ll still be in the Northwest flow so if you have changed over you are likely to be staying changed over for the duration of the storm. There could be periods of rain/snow/mix across central New Jersey as temperatures may fluctuate. Northern NJ, particularly Northwest NJ should remain all snow. Low pressure system appears to be slowly meandering off the NJ coastline. It should continue to make its way northward over the next few hours. Rain is falling at this time in Vermont. Snow is falling across New York state, where I am thinking over a foot of snow could fall. The Adirondacks down into the Catskills and Poconos should see the most from this storm system.
There is still a lot of uncertainty for areas east of Burlington Vermont. The low pressure track will be crucial to determine how much snow you will get. There will likely be a very strong gradient of snowfall amounts with this storm. One area could see 4″ while the other area may see barely an inch. If the low tracks further east then that would allow more colder air to get pulled into the system further east. Being that we’re seeing snow down as far south as central NJ, I am thinking that the cold air gets really pulled into the system as this moves northward. The storm is forecasted to intensify further as it moves north. This should help accelerate the cooling in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. As a result, I think we could see more snowfall accumulations further east then what the models have been projecting. Overall I think a general 4-8″ of snow can be expected from this system across Northern Vermont into the Northeast Kingdom. Higher elevations will likely see a tad more snow with this system as they will be higher up. The further east and south you get, especially into NH you will drop considerably in snowfall amounts. Southern VT will likely see 2-5″ of snow, higher elevations see more. Champlain valley will likely see 5-10″ of snow from this system. New York state is the big winner with 10-16″ of snow possible, higher elevations could see more.
More updates throughout the afternoon and evening. If traveling be sure to allow yourself extra time and only travel if you must!
PLEASE SEND YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ME BY LEAVING A COMMENT!
Forecaster: Joe Gullo
