I’m not going to lie this is a very complex and complicated forecast that will likely change over the next couple of days. I urge you to continue to check back here at Storm Chaos Weather for the latest on the weekend weather for the region.

What seems apparent to me, which I brought up yesterday on the blog, is that the models are over emphasising that Invest 93L develops into a tropical system. We do have a new invest today, Invest 94L, which could develop into a tropical system or extra-tropical system. This is the upper-level low we were discussing yesterday off the South Carolina/Georgia coast. What is also interesting is the intensity of both of these features. Invest 93L is weaker with sustained winds around 30 kts, while Invest 94L is stronger with winds around 55 kts. I think the Euro, which seemed to be out to lunch picked up on this nicely and our real focal point should not be about 93L but on 94L. As I stated yesterday, things will begin to get interesting across the region with regards to these two systems. One of them being that these two systems 93L and 94L could merge into one storm and impact our region by the end of this week into this weekend. The models continue to dictate this on some level. However, I feel that the focal point is in the wrong place. I think 94L will be the more dominate storm while 93L remains weaker. Now this forecast reminds me of winter weather, except warmer. Don’t worry we will not being snow from this system, we’re still a little ways off for that! As we see with winter storms is that if the dominate low is more inland it draws moisture in from the Atlantic and with it makes conditions too warm for many to see any type of snow. 94L is forecasted to move inland somwhere along the South Carolina/North Carolina coast sometime tomorrow and move inland. A trough building from the west should catch this system and force it on a more northerly and easterly track. However, this system is inland so it should allow more moisture to be pulled in from the Atlantic. This in combination of a merge between 94L and 93L should help with the tropical connection, making for a really wet end of the week and weekend.

The forecast does get a little bit more complicated then that. An area of high pressure currently dominating the region is fairly strong. General pressure readings across the region are around 1030 MB. This high could further delay the precipitation from falling across the region. The main reason is that the air is relatively dry across the region, with dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. This colder air mass could help prevent heavy rainfall from developing initially until the high moves offshore and the dew points rise due to the surge of warm air overrunning the colder air. The models have also showed a slow down of the storm impacting the region. Most of the 12z models have the precipitation developing across southern New England by tomorrow night and lingering into Friday. New England likely starting sometime on Friday and lasting through Saturday.

So what does this mean for my weekend?

Coastal areas of the Northeast will definitely see rain and wind from this storm. Depending on the exact track of the storm will determine how much rain, how much wind, and it’s general impact on the region. Being that I am favoring that 94L will have a greater impact on the region this places the bulk of the action further west and closer to the coast. If 93L merges, even partially with 94L, then that system would be a little closer to the coast as well. Have to watch the timing as that could be a concern, but I think things will get going across southern New England (NJ, DE, MD) by late tomorrow afternoon into the evening and then lasting for much of the day on Friday. By Friday afternoon we could see precipitation starting sometime late morning/early afternoon and then lasting through much of the day on Saturday. Lingering showers for New England on Sunday. The models are indicating some areas could see up to 5 inches of accumulated precipitation by the end of this weekend. Most areas will likely see 1 to 4″+ precipitation. Flooding and flash flooding is possible across the region, especially in flood prone areas. Wind may also be a concern as this system could be tropical in nature and the pressure gradient from lower pressure to higher pressure could create some strong winds across the region. High Wind Watches have already been posted for areas in the Washington D.C. area and other areas in the Northeast will likely be under that as well. Winds could gust 40-45 MPH+ in some spots. Coastal areas could also see some beach erosion. Once again the exact track of the storm will determine the impact the storm will have on the region. I urge you to stay tuned to Storm Chaos Weather for the latest as the forecast could change. This is a very complex storm system and I’m trying to iron out the details of the storm.

Please comment or email me with any questions or concerns you have about the storm.

I’ll keep you posted

Forecaster: Joe Gullo