Gustav weakened overnight last night to a category 3 storm, but further strengthening is likely before landfall early tomorrow morning. I’m still confident that Gustav will make landfall along the central Louisiana coastline around the Dulac area. Gustav will be entering some higher shear which could limit the intensification, despite the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. With shear gradually getting higher near the coast it should allow for a weaker landfalling hurricane. I’m thinking a very strong category 3 or weak category 4 hurricane at landfall.

Storm Chaos Weather Forecast Projection –

Below is my thoughts on where the storm will hit and with what intensity. I also broke down rainfall and storm surge. Check back throughout the day for updates on the projected path/intensity. The landfall location is subject to change as any wobble with the storm could cause a change in the location.

Landfall Location: ~Dulac (landfall within 25 miles west or east)

Landfall Wind Speed: 130-135 MPH (Category 4)

Storm Surge Projection: 18-25 feet above normal tide

Rain Amounts: 8 to 14″ with amounts as high as 20 inches possible

**Tornadoes are possible with hurricane Gustav.

Forecaster: Joe Gullo