Upper-level is now beginning to “open up” into an upper-level trough which should move through the region today into the early part of Tuesday. This unsettled pattern should be enough to destabilize, initate, and develop some strong to severe thunderstorms.

Most of the region saw precipitation yesterday due to some intense day time heating. However, lifting was marginal across southern NJ which is one of the only areas that escaped the moisture. Places in New England may see some heavy precipitation once again today. My concern is some areas may have to deal with some flooding as rivers and streams are slightly above average. Many of the rivers and streams across VT, NH and upstate NY area high, any additional precipitation may aggrevate the situation. Be prepared for flash flooding across that region. In response to this risk, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch across much of the VT, NH, and upstate NY region. Areas that see heavy thunderstorms and rain may also see flash flooding across the entire Northeast.

Today another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely be the rule in this muggy and hazy airmass. The clash between the upper-level trough and this very warm, moisture-rich airmas should cause some thunderstorm development. I’m thinking the best chance for thunderstorms would be between 4 PM and 7 PM across eastern PA and into NJ. Thunderstorms can and may develop before and after these times. Further towards the north across New England I think we remain dry for much of the late afternoon and early evening. Precipitation threat increases after 8 PM tonight.

The greatest threat from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 58 MPH and hail, possibly large.

Most of the region should remain under mostly cloudy skies, some breaks of sun from time to time. In addition, it’ll be very humid.

Keep an eye to the sky! You know I will!

Forecaster: Joe Gullo