February 22, 2010 | 9:43 am
Late February North Country Storm
Winter is making a comeback across this region. The forecast is going to be a challenging one, merely because of the complexity of the players on the board.
This discussion is going to focus in detail on the first out of three potential storm systems which could impact the region. I will provide a larger overview of the other systems since they are important. The first storm is crucial for the forecast of the second two storms.
Discussion
Area of low pressure moves out from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. This low pressure system which we’ll refer to as “Low A” will begin to fizzle out. However, a secondary low will develop off the East Coast. The secondary low will be called “Low B.” Low B will become the main dominate low pressure system to impact the area.
This is where the forecast deviates a bit.
One computer model, the GFS, wants to create a series of low pressure systems. In fact, “Low B” doesn’t really get going until another low pressure ejects off the East Coast from around NC/southern VA area. This low pressure system, “Low C” then rides up the coast and eventually gets drawn closer to the coast by a stronger upper-level low. “Low C” ultimately gets trapped for days and just meanders until the pattern eventually breaks and it can roam free.
However, some of the other global models have the same idea but have “Low B” being the dominate low – developing across the NC/southern VA area and then moving up the coast. The low gets trapped by the strong upper-level low and meanders around for a couple of days until the pattern eventually breaks and it can roam free.
The details still need to be ironed out with this system. The same idea is on all of the models. We see “Low A” track from the Ohio Valley and move North and East. From there we either have “Low B” develop as per the other global models or “Low C” develop as per the GFS. Regardless of which scenario pans out “Low B” and “Low C” stalls and meanders for days — possibly into this upcoming weekend.
Risk
Significant snow accumulations can be expected for Upstate NY, western VT and portions of central VT. Depending on the low track significant snow accumulations could be possible across NE VT and northern NH. Warm air off the Atlantic will likely prevent any major snow accumulations across southeastern portions of VT, southern NH and into ME.
Accumulations
I like the idea of a wide range of snow totals in the 12″ – 24″ range. Possibly more when all is said and done. These numbers could easily be exceeded in some locations.
Stay tuned!