Winter is making a comeback across this region. The forecast is going to be a challenging one, merely because of the complexity of the players on the board.

This discussion is going to focus in detail on the first out of three potential storm systems which could impact the region. I will provide a larger overview of the other systems since they are important. The first storm is crucial for the forecast of the second two storms.

Discussion

Area of low pressure moves out from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. This low pressure system which we’ll refer to as “Low A” will begin to fizzle out. However, a secondary low will develop off the East Coast. The secondary low will be called “Low B.” Low B will become the main dominate low pressure system to impact the area.

This is where the forecast deviates a bit.

One computer model, the GFS, wants to create a series of low pressure systems. In fact, “Low B” doesn’t really get going until another low pressure ejects off the East Coast from around NC/southern VA area. This low pressure system, “Low C” then rides up the coast and eventually gets drawn closer to the coast by a stronger upper-level low. “Low C” ultimately gets trapped for days and just meanders until the pattern eventually breaks and it can roam free.

However, some of the other global models have the same idea but have “Low B” being the dominate low – developing across the NC/southern VA area and then moving up the coast. The low gets trapped by the strong upper-level low and meanders around for a couple of days until the pattern eventually breaks and it can roam free.

The details still need to be ironed out with this system. The same idea is on all of the models. We see “Low A” track from the Ohio Valley and move North and East. From there we either have “Low B” develop as per the other global models or “Low C” develop as per the GFS. Regardless of which scenario pans out “Low B” and “Low C” stalls and meanders for days — possibly into this upcoming weekend.

Risk

Significant snow accumulations can be expected for Upstate NY, western VT and portions of central VT. Depending on the low track significant snow accumulations could be possible across NE VT and northern NH. Warm air off the Atlantic will likely prevent any major snow accumulations across southeastern portions of VT, southern NH and into ME.

Accumulations

I like the idea of a wide range of snow totals in the 12″ – 24″ range. Possibly more when all is said and done. These numbers could easily be exceeded in some locations.

Stay tuned!

What a winter it has been. In my hometown they have seen more snow than I have seen up here at school in Upstate NY.

The pattern is expected to change though as a possible winter storm eyes up the North Country.

Here are the latest Storm Chaos Weather Threats…

Threat: Moderate

• Region – Upstate New York, Northern VT, Western NY state
• Risk: Wind, Heavy Snow, Significant Snow Accumulations
• Time: Tuesday – Friday
• Accumulations: Possibility of significant snow accumulations

Threat: Low

• Region – Eastern VT, NH
• Risk: Wind, Heavy Snow, Ice, Mix
• Time: Tuesday – Friday
• Accumulations: Possibility of light to moderate snow, ice and or mixed precipitation accumulations

Stay tuned for more information regarding the possibility of this storm.

!ALERT! Potential Winter Storm to affect the region 12/31 – 1/1. Please stay tuned for continual updates for New Years.

Here are some forecasts for selected cities:

Forecast issued: 12/28 at 11:10 AM

New York, New York

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Turning Cloudy	Snow	Snow	Snow
Hi 38	Lo 32	Hi 34	Lo 32

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Ice/Rain	Ice/Rain	Ice/Rain	Ice/Rain
Hi 41	Lo 34	Hi 36	Lo 33

Boston, Massachusetts

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Mostly Cloudy	Snow	Snow	Snow
Hi 36	Lo 31	Hi 33	Lo 30

Albany, New York

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Mostly Cloudy	Snow	Snow	Snow
Hi 35	Lo 30	Hi 32	Lo 29

Portland, Maine

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Partly Cloudy	Snow	Snow	Snow
Hi 33	Lo 31	Hi 35	Lo 31

Burlington, Vermont

Thursday	Night	Friday	Night
12/31	12/31	1/1	1/1
Partly Cloudy	Snow	Snow	Snow
Hi 31	Lo 27	Hi 30	Lo 26

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Dangerous Winter Storm Impacting Northeast…

Blizzard conditions are expected through the remainder of the day and into the overnight as a coastal low pressure continues to march its way up the East Coast.

Dry air has been eroding away much of the precipitation across the NYC metro area, however, a different story further south. There have been reports of reduced visibilities and drifting snow. The same type of conditions are expected further north as the storm pivots its way up the coast.

The SPC has placed the area in a mesoscale discussion for the possibility of seeing 1-2″+ snowfall rates this evening.

Accumulations. Central and Southern NJ including Philadelphia Metro and NYC metro area 12-24″+. Less snow further north and west. NW NJ could see 4-8″ of snow. Poconos into the Catskills 3-6″.

It has been an active couple of days in the weather department. I can’t believe that the South is seeing snow! The same storm system that is bringing the precipitation down there, will be heading North.

The models have brought the storm closer inland which should allow for some light accumulations across southern New England.

Preliminary Thoughts on the storm:

Southern NJ and coastal LI => should remain mostly rain.

I-95 Corridor up through coastal CT and NYC metro areas => Mixing from time to time, changing to rain

Northern NJ and southern NY through Central CT => Accumulations of 1-3″ possible

North of Albany could see light accumulations of T-1″ (areas north and west of Albany will likely miss out on this storm system).

Please check often because the forecast for this storm is evolving.

Forecaster: Joe Gullo