Storm Chaos Wx

This weather pattern that the Northeastern United States has seen over much of June will continue for much of the week.  The cold front that was responsible for this past friday’s widespread severe weather event across Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic, including an EF1 tornado in Wethersfield, CT, has moved well off shore.  The low pressure responsible for last weeks weather that has been lingering off the coast will continue to move farther out to sea, and it is not expected to be a player in the weather anymore.  Now, we will have to deal with another low pressure currently over the Great Lakes that will remain rather stationary over the next several days.  We can expect to see a chance of thunderstorms over the next several days…however, I am more confident that this week we will see sun.  While it is too early to be able to determine what will happen on later in the week, I am confident that there will not be any washout days at this time.  However, the fact that this low pressure will remain stationary for much of the week means that a threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during each of these days, with the uncertainty increasing out towards the end of the week. 

Will your 4th of July weekend be an enjoyable one, or will your plans be threatened by more rain?  We will let you know in the upcoming days as to what you can expect.

Stay tuned!

Forecaster: Alex Avalos

The Storm Prediction Center has issued numerous Severe Thunderstorm Watches across a majority of the Northeast / New England for the remainder of the day.  All areas included in a WW at this time are currently seeing explosive thunderstorm development somewhere within.  It is important to remember the safety guidelines that should be followed in the event of a thunderstorm.  Many storms have already achieved severe limits today, some of which have produced golf ball sized hail as well as damaging wind gusts, as well as a lot of lightning.  Please be alert to any changing weather conditions for the remainder of this afternoon, conditions could change really quickly.  It is important to also remember that if you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.  Also, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with little to no warning.  If a tornado warning is issued, get in the lowest level of your house in an interior room with no windows and protect your head.  I will continue to update any changing weather conditions.

Forecaster: Alex Avalos

This map depicts where I think the GREATEST severe weather threat will exist, not necessarily just anywhere that severe weather is possible.

We are on tap for some active weather today as a cold front makes its trek eastward.  As it does so, we could see the development of strong to even severe thunderstorms throughout most of New England, though at this time I think that the threat is more conditional with northward extent, for two reasons.  The front will pass through this area earlier in the day, meaning the atmosphere will have less time to destabilize than areas southward.  Also, temperatures may not achieve their full potential in these areas early enough.  However, regardless, severe storms will be possible here today. 

With these storms we could see large hail, damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph, as well as an outside chance of an isolated tornado, mainly across CT, NJ and NY.  At this time, storm initiation is expected to occur this afternoon, though the exact timing is still uncertain.  However, they will initiate ahead of the cold front in a moist, unstable atmosphere where high CAPE and shear values will be possible.  Most all of the region should see significant decrease in cloud cover by early afternoon, which will allow for significant surface heating to create this instability.  The primary storm mode today will be multicellular, though supercells will not be out of the question as shear values will be around 30-40 kts today.  Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values will exist up to 2000 j/kg for the majority of these areas.  Coastal areas, mainly the CT/RI/MA region, will not see a SE flow off of the ocean during the day today, so I am not expecting a seabreeze to inhibit storm motion or development in these regions.

It is important to remember severe weather safety guidelines.  Always be prepared for the worst.  Whenever you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning, even when blue sky can be seen.  Also, if a tornado warning is issued for your area, get in your basement or the lowest level of your home, in an interior room with no windows, and protect your head.  

Convection should begin to dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating.  Keep an eye on the sky today, it might be a good idea to do so.

Please stay tuned for continuous updates throughout the day.  You know I will be monitoring this.

Forecaster: Alex Avalos

Finally!  After a month where clouds, rain and below average temperatures have dominated the weather headlines, we are finally going to see our first taste of summer on thursday.  I expect that the day will be dominated by sunshine, as well as much warmer temperatures.  This is weather that most Northeasterners have been looking forward to for quite some time.  Here is my breakdown as to which regions will see what temperatures tomorrow. 

Coastal: Expect to see temperatures hovering at or slightly below the 80 degree mark during the course of the day.  While inland areas will be warmer, these temperatures will be above what we have seen much of this month. 

Inland:   Temperatures here will be warmer than in coastal areas.  I expect mid to upper 80’s in the majority of the inland regions.  If dewpoints can climb into the 50’s - 60’s, then we will experience humid conditions as well.

Northern portions of the Northeast / New England will deal with showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as a cold front pushes southward.

Monitoring the same cold front that will bring a chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms during the day friday to southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.  Stay tuned on the latest.

Forecaster: Alex Avalos

People who have plans today and tomorrow will be dodging the rain that will make for a rather unpleasant Father’s Day weekend.  At this time, a low is situated east of the Ohio Valley, moving east.  It will continue its trek eastward, and impact the northern Mid-Atlantic states as well as southern New England, today through tomorrow.  Temperatures will continue to remain rather unseasonable and below average.  At this time abundant moisture is present, thus rainfall will be heavy for the majority of the areas mentioned above.  Flood watches continue for CT, much of MA, southeastern NY, southwest NH, northeast NJ, and RI into tomorrow afternoon.  

I am thinking that the heaviest rain will be across all of CT as well as portions of western MA.  Rainfall amounts in these regions could total as high as two (2) inches, possibly higher, though I think that the amounts greater than 2 inches will be confined to the southern portions of the region mentioned above.  Areas of NY southward to NJ may see up to an inch of rain.  Some areas are already seeing rain at this time, anywhere from NJ up into southeast NY.  This will continue eastward throughout tonight, and it will come in the form of torrential, heavy rain. 

Father’s Day is not looking much better unfortunately.  The low will move offshore tonight.  However, I still expect it to be another washout of a day, mainly because the low will remain just offshore.  The passage of the low will draw in a chilly northeasterly wind throughout the day.  It might be a good idea to carry the umbrellas tomorrow if you have outdoor plans, it appears to be another soaker of a day.

Fortunately, there does appear to be good news.  At this time it appears there could be a possible warm up to more seasonable temperatures during the middle of this upcoming week.  However I will not go into detail on the specifics right now, as much uncertainty will exist over the next few days.

Stay tuned for the latest on the next weather trend.

Forecaster: Alex Avalos